Hurricane Patricia (Spanish pronunciation: [paˈtɾisia]) was the second-most intense tropical cyclone on record worldwide, with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 872 mbar (hPa;
25.75 inHg).[1] Originating from a sprawling disturbance
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
south of Mexico, in mid-October 2015, Patricia was first classified a tropical depression on October 20. Initial
development was slow, with only modest strengthening within the first day of
its classification. The system later became a tropical storm and was named
Patricia, the twenty-fourth named storm of the annual hurricane season. Exceptionally
favorable environmental conditions fueled explosive
intensification on
October 22. A well-defined eye developed within an intense central dense overcast and Patricia grew from a tropical
storm to a Category 5
hurricane in just 24 hours—a
near-record pace. On October 23, the hurricane achieved its record peak
intensity with maximum sustained
winds of 215 mph
(345 km/h).[nb 1][nb
2] This
made it the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Western Hemisphere, and the strongest
globally in terms of 1-minute maximum sustained winds.
Late on
October 23, dramatic weakening ensued and Patricia made landfall near Cuixmala, Jalisco, with winds of 150 mph
(240 km/h). This made it the strongest landfalling hurricane on record
along the Pacific coast of Mexico. Patricia continued to weaken extremely
quickly, faster than it had intensified, as it interacted with the mountainous
terrain of Mexico. Within 24 hours of moving ashore, Patricia degraded
into a tropical depression and dissipated soon thereafter late on October 24.
The
precursor to Patricia produced widespread flooding rains in Central America. Hundreds of thousands
of people were directly affected by the storm, mostly in Guatemala. At least six fatalities
were attributed to the event: four in El
Salvador, one in Guatemala, and one in Nicaragua.
Torrential rains extended into southeastern Mexico, with areas of Quintana Roo and Veracruz reporting accumulations in excess of
19.7 in (500 mm). Damage in Chetumal reached 1.4 billion pesos (US$84.1 million).[nb 3]
As a
tropical cyclone, Patricia's effects in Mexico were tremendous; however, the
affected areas were predominantly rural, mitigating a potential large-scale
disaster. Violent winds tore roofs from structures and stripped coastal areas
of their vegetation. Preliminary assessments indicate hundreds of homes to be
destroyed; seven fatalities are linked to the hurricane directly or indirectly,
including one during evacuations. Total damage is estimated to be in excess of
5.4 billion pesos (US$323.3 million), with agriculture and
infrastructure comprising the majority of losses. Flooding partially associated
with remnant moisture from Patricia inflicted US$52.5 million in damage
across Southern Texas.
Meteorological history[edit]
Map plotting the
track and intensity of the storm according to the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale
Main article: Meteorological history of Hurricane Patricia
On October 11, 2015, an area of
disturbed weather traversed Central America and emerged over the eastern Pacific
Ocean. The disturbance moved slowly over the next few days, later merging with
a tropical wave on October 15. The merger of these systems and the effects of a
concurrent Tehuantepec gap wind event spurred the
formation of a broad area of low pressure. This feature gradually consolidated and became a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on October 20;
at this time the depression was situated roughly 205 mi (335 km)
south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. A mid-level ridge to the north steered the depression
generally west and later pulled it north along an arcing path.[1]
Development was initially slowed by
locally cooler sea surface temperatures and dry air, and
the depression became Tropical Storm Patricia only later that day.[1] Once clear of the unfavorable region,
Patricia traversed anomalously warm waters within an environment exceptionally
conducive to rapid intensification.[1][2] Dramatic strengthening began late on
October 21 and continued through October 23. Patricia reached hurricane strength by 06:00 UTC on October 22,[1] featuring prominent outflow, well-defined
banding features,[3] and a developing eye.[4] Data from Hurricane Hunters investigating the cyclone indicated
Patricia to have reached Category 4 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale by 18:00 UTC.[1][5]
Satellite animation
of Patricia making landfall on October 23
By the early hours of
October 23, a clear northward turn took place followed by acceleration
northeast.[6] A solid ring of −130 °F (−90 °C) cloud tops surrounded the
hurricane's 12 mi (19 km) wide eye and signaled its intensification
into a Category 5 hurricane. In a 24-hour span, Patricia's maximum sustained winds increased by 120 mph (195 km/h), the fastest such
intensification in any hurricane observed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The
hurricane achieved its peak around 12:00 UTC on October 23 with
estimated winds around 215 mph (345 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 872 mbar (hPa; 25.75 inHg); these values are based upon
continued intensification after a Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm six hours
prior. In the NHC's report on Patricia, it is noted that the hurricane may have
surpassed Typhoon Tip as the strongest tropical cyclone
ever observed, but lack of direct observations at the time of its peak prevent
analysis of such.[1]
Later on October 23, rapid
weakening ensued as an eyewall replacement cycle took shape and wind
shear increased. In the five hours up until landfall in Mexico, Patricia weakened at an
unprecedented rate while still over water. However, it remained a violent
hurricane and moved ashore around 23:00 UTC near Cuixmala, Jalisco, with
winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and an analyzed pressure of 932 mbar
(hPa; 27.49 inHg). This made it the most intense Pacific hurricane on
record to strike Mexico. Once onshore, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains accelerated Patricia's weakening. The low- and mid-level circulations of
the cyclone decoupled, with the latter accelerating northeast, and Patricia
dissipated on October 24 over central Mexico, less than 18 hours
after moving ashore.[1]
Records[edit]
See also: Meteorological history of Hurricane Patricia § Records
Hurricane Patricia set multiple
records for maximum strength, rate of intensification, and rate of weakening
throughout its relatively short existence. With maximum sustained winds of
215 mph (345 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 872 mbar (hPa;
25.75 inHg), Patricia is the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed in
the Western Hemisphere. In terms of
central pressure, it is also the second-most-intense tropical cyclone ever
recorded worldwide, just shy of Typhoon Tip in 1979 which had a minimum pressure
of 870 mbar (hPa; 25.69 inHg).[1] Patricia's one-minute maximum sustained winds ranked as the highest ever
reliably observed or estimated in a tropical cyclone, surpassingTyphoon Haiyan of 2013.[7] The magnitude of Patricia's rapid
intensification is among the fastest ever observed. In a 24-hour period,
06:00–06:00 UTC October 22–23, its maximum sustained winds increased
from 85 mph (140 km/h) to 205 mph (335 km/h), a record
increase of 120 mph (195 km/h). During the same period, Patricia's
central pressure fell by 95 mbar (hPa; 2.81 inHg). Despite record
over-water weakening prior to striking Mexico, Patricia became the most intense
Pacific hurricane to make landfall, with a pressure of 932 mbar (hPa;
27.52 inHg).[1]
Preparations[edit]
President Enrique Peña Nieto meets with cabinet members to discuss Hurricane Patricia on October 23
Prior to the arrival of Hurricane
Patricia, the Government of Mexico issued multiple watches and warnings for coastal communities. A hurricane watch was first raised at 09:00 UTC on
October 21, encompassing areas of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco. A tropical storm watch also covered portions of Guerrero. As Patricia
intensified, the government issued ahurricane warning for areas between Cabo Corrientes, Jalisco, and Punta San Telmo, Michoacán; a tropical storm warningsupplemented this
for areas farther north and east. The hurricane warning was extended northward
to include areas south ofSan Blas, Nayarit, on
October 23. Once the storm moved inland and the threat of damaging winds
diminished, these warnings were gradually discontinued on October 24.[1]
_Laslovarga1.JPG)
Evacuation from
hotel Riu Vallarta on morning before Hurricane Patricia made landfall
Following Patricia's upgrade to
Category 5 status, the National Hurricane Center called the storm
"potentially catastrophic",[8] a source of criticism and praise from various media.[9] Citing the relatively limited damage
and loss of life, some outlets, including the Associated Press,[10] claimed the agency was exaggerating the danger posed by the storm.
However, most outlets praised them for effectively communicating the dire
threat and potentially saving lives from an exceptionally powerful hurricane.[9][11]
Across Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco,
and Nayarit, 1,782 shelters were opened on October 22 with a
collective capacity of 258,000 people.[12] Officials in Manzanillo began distributing sandbags during the afternoon of October 22.[13] Schools across Guerreroand Jalisco
suspended activities for October 22 and 23, respectively.[14][15] Civil protection officials planned to
evacuate roughly 50,000 people from Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit.[16] To expedite the process,
2 aircraft and 600 buses were used to shuttle evacuees.[17]Ultimately, 8,500 people evacuated prior to the storm's arrival,
including 2,600 in Cabo Corrientes.[17][18] One person died during an evacuation in Jalisco.[19] Roughly 25,000 personnel from
the Mexican Army, Navy, and Federal Police were deployed preemptively.[20]More than 500 Red Cross volunteers were on standby.[21] The Mexican Red Cross prepositioned food for
3,500 families.[22] Approximately 30 kg (66 lb) of aid was prepositioned in Colima
for distribution after the hurricane's passage. The Electric Federal Commission
dispatched 2,500 crewmen, 152 cranes, 15 all-terrain vehicles,
4 helicopters, and 84 generators to cope with potential power
outages.[21] Mexican authorities received praise for effectively carrying out
emergency preparations.[23]
Impact from precursor disturbance[edit]
The sprawling
precursor to Hurricane Patricia over Central America on October 17
The precursor of Patricia was a large
and sprawling system that affected much of Central America with heavy rain for several days.[1][24]Rainfall was enhanced by the presence of multiple systems, including a
tropical wave and a second disturbance over the Caribbean Sea.[1] One person was killed in the Alta Verapaz Department and approximately 2,100 people required evacuation across
Guatemala.[24][25] A total of 442 homes and 28,200 ha (70,000 acres) of crops
were damaged while roughly 223,000 people were affected by flooding.[26][27] Government officials deployed
emergency teams and 40 million quetzal (US$5.4 million) was available
for relief operations.[26] In nearby El Salvador between 6.3 and 7.3 in (160 and
185 mm) of rain fell, causing similar floods.[28] Dozens of homes were affected and
four people were killed.[28][29] The Goascorán River overflowed its banks twice in two
days, inundating surrounding communities.[28] Owing to widespread flooding, authorities suspended school activities
across the country on October 19.[29] In Nicaragua, a landslide buried four miners in Bonanza; one died while the others were rescued.[30] The Ulúa River in Honduras over-topped its banks for the first
time in 17 years on October 18, prompting the evacuation of more than
200 people.[31][32] Furthermore, flooding damaged 10 homes in Jacó, Costa Rica.[33]
The aforementioned rains extended
into Southwestern and Northeastern Mexico, falling from October 18–20; precipitation
was enhanced by another tropical disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Portions of Quintana Roo saw their most intense rainfall event
on record, with 19.8 in (502 mm) observed in Chetumal. This surpassed
the previous record of 18 in (450 mm) during Hurricane Wilma in 2005.
Flooding affected approximately 1,500 homes in the city, with
150 people seeking refuge in public shelters.[34] Damage in Chetumal was pegged at
1.4 billion pesos (US$84.1 million).[35] Seven municipalities were declared disaster areas accordingly.[36] In nearbyVeracruz, more than
24 in (600 mm) of rain caused widespread flooding; at least
50 municipalities reported damage from the event as multiple rivers
over-topped their banks.[37] Flooding in Tabasco affected 7,500 ha (19,000 acres)
of crops.[38] In Oaxaca, several roads were washed out by the accompanying floods and
mudslides, particularly in the Sierra Norte region.[39] Widespread flooding affected large areas of Chiapas and Guerrero, prompting dozens of evacuations.[40] InTapachula, Chiapas,
6.6 in (168 mm) of rain fell in just 90 minutes, triggering
flash floods that caught residents by surprise. Hundreds of families were
affected and 64 homes were damaged or destroyed.[41]
Impact as a tropical cyclone[edit]
Mexico[edit]
Hurricane Patricia made landfall in
Jalisco as a Category 4 hurricane during the evening of October 23.
The 15 mi (24 km) wide core of Patricia largely avoided populated
centers, passing through areas with a population density less than
30 people per square mile. This, alongside effective evacuations, is
credited for the relatively low death toll, despite the hurricane's intensity.
Several small communities along the path sustained tremendous damage, however.[42] Had the hurricane moved farther east
or west, the densely populated areas surrounding Manzanillo or Puerto Vallarta would have suffered a direct hit.[23]
Throughout the affected region, the
storm's powerful winds left 261,989 people without electricity.[18][20] Twenty-one of the nation's thirty-one states, and the Federal District, were affected by
the hurricane's rain.[43] Accumulations in Jalisco peaked at 15.09 in (383.2 mm) on Nevado de Colima.[44] Roughly 42,000 ha (100,000
acres) of crops were affected across Colima, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nyarit,
with 15,000 ha (37,000 acres) deemed a total loss and 27,000 ha
(67,000 acres) partially damaged.[45] Six deaths occurred due to direct or indirect effects of the hurricane,
all in Jalisco.[46][47] Damage assessments indicate total losses around 5.4 billion pesos
(US$323.3 million), primarily from agriculture and infrastructure.[18][48][49][50][51]
Jalisco[edit]
.png)
Hurricane Patricia
hours before making landfall in Jalisco
Striking Jalisco as a strong
Category 4 hurricane, Patricia wrought tremendous damage, though the most
extreme effects were relatively localized. In the small community of Emiliano
Zapata, the hurricane's violent winds tore roofs off homes and business.
Countless trees were defoliated, stripped of their branches, snapped, or
uprooted. Hillsides along the immediate landfall area were largely stripped of
vegetation. Storm chaser Josh Morgerman described the aftermath: "... the
tropical landscape was transformed into something barren and wintry."[52] Furthermore, the winds toppled
concrete power poles and crumpled transmission towers.[52]
Throughout Jalisco, approximately
9,000 homes were damaged or destroyed.[53] The coastal hamlet of Chamela, home to 40 families, was completely flattened.[54] More than 24,000 ha (59,000
acres) of crops were affected across the state: 10,684 ha (26,400 acres)
sustained total losses while 13,943 ha (34,450 acres) were partially so.
Damage from agriculture amounted to roughly 168 million pesos
(US$10.1 million).[55] Total damage reached to 1.139 billion pesos (US$68.7 million).[48]
A total of six deaths in incidents
related to Patricia were reported in the state.[46] Two of these deaths occurred when a
tree toppled over in the storm's powerful winds.[47] A woman was also hospitalized after
sustaining injuries in the same incident. Another four people were killed in an automobile accident in southern Jalisco. Two of the victims died in the wreckage and the
other two died after being brought to a hospital.[46][56]
A cargo ship—the 735 ft
(224 m) bulk carrier Los Llanitos[57]—was shifted off-course by the hurricane and grounded near Barra de Navidad, Jalisco. Her
27 crew were unharmed but required rescue by a military helicopter.[58] The ship was subsequently deemed a
total loss and crews began scrapping the vessel on-site in
February 2016.[59]
Colima and Michoacán[edit]
Coastal damage from
Patricia in Colima
In nearby Colima, preliminary surveys
indicated localized but severe damage. A total of 200 schools,
107 health facilities, 34 sport facilities, and 11,645 ha
(28,780 acres) of agriculture was affected by the storm.[60] Severe damage was incurred by the
banana crops, with losses from the fruit alone estimated at 500 million
pesos (US$30.2 million).[18] Total damage in the state reached 1.7 billion pesos
(US$102.6 million).[49]
Although Patricia made landfall
farther west, damage across Michoacán was severe. Numerous communities were
temporarily isolated as roads were either rendered impassible or washed away
altogether by floods.[61] A total of 1,512 homes were damaged and another 127 were destroyed
across the state,[62] including 600 in Coahuayana.[63] The storm severely damaged 150 homes in the Arteaga Municipality. A portion of Highway 200 was shut down in Aquila.[61]Agriculture sustained
extensive damage with 10,000 ha (25,000 acres) of crops destroyed; losses
in the sector amounted to 2.5 billion pesos (US$151.2 million). In
Coahuayana alone, 5,600 ha (14,000 acres) of bananas were ruined, the
greatest loss of crops in the municipality's history;[50] thousands of residents lost their
jobs as a result of the damage.[63] Losses to health facilities in the state reached 13.5 million pesos
(US$815,000).[51]
Other states[edit]
The hurricane produced large swells
along the shores of Guerrero on October 22, causing damage to coastal
structures.[64] The remnants of Patricia brought heavy rain to much of northern Mexico
on October 24. Up to 7.6 in (193 mm) of rain was observed in Tamaulipas, resulting in
flooding. Dozens of structures sustained damage and hundreds were left without
power, with areas in Reynosa and Río Bravo particularly affected.[65]
Texas[edit]
Patricia's direct effects in Texas
were limited to southern areas of the state. Moisture associated with the
hurricane streamed ahead of its circulation and interacted with a frontal
boundary over the region.[66] Antecedent rains saturated the region and produced severe flooding, with
cars flooded and a train derailed.[67] Fears arose that the collective effects of these storms would produce
deadly floods, similar to those in May earlier in the year; however, no deaths resulted.[68] Houston received 9.38 in (238 mm)
of rain during a 24-hour span from October 24–25,[69] and a brief tornado caused minor damage near the city.[70] Rain fell at rates of 1 to 2 in (25 to 51 mm) per hour in
southern Hidalgo County, leading to damaging flash floods. An estimated 10 to 12 in (250
to 300 mm), or more, accumulated across the Progreso–Weslaco area. Several feet of water rendered roads impassible, stranded cars,
and affected more than 500 homes. Twenty-six water rescues were conducted
in the area. Damage was estimated at $50 million.[71] Several roads in and around Corpus Christi were inundated,[72] including part of Interstate 37.[73] Two hours of "blinding rains" flooded the majority of eastern Willacy County, prompting
multiple water rescues, and leaving $2.5 million in damage.[74]
Aftermath[edit]
In the aftermath of the hurricane,
5,791 Marines from Mexico's Naval Infantry Force were deployed to assist with recovery
and rescue efforts.[75] Rescuers reached some of the hardest-hit areas within a day of
Patricia's landfall.[23] Red Cross volunteers began needs assessments on October 24 and
distribution of humanitarian aid started the following day.[22] Power was restored to 88 percent
of those affected within two days of the storm.[20] Through the nation's livestock
catastrophe fund, 150 million pesos (US$9 million) were allocated for
agricultural areas affected by the storm on October 29. Of this total,
76 million pesos (US$4.6 million) were delegated to Jalisco.[76]
The Secretariat of Social Development's budget allowed for
250 million pesos (US$15.1 million) in relief funds for Jalisco.[47] Of this, 34 million pesos
(US$2 million) were allocated for affected persons.[77] On October 27, Rafael Pacchiano Alamán announced an initial fund of 5.3 million pesos (US$318,000) through
the Temporary Employment Program (Programa de Empleo Temporal) to help spur
economic recovery in Colima.[78] On October 28, 15 of Jalisco's 125 municipalities were declared disaster areas; assessments were
ongoing in 5–10 other municipalities to potentially be added to this
declaration.[79] Of the more than 24,000 ha (59,000 acres) of crops affected by
Patricia in Jalisco, only 6,600 ha (16,000 acres) were covered by
insurance.[55] Through late January 2016, Instituto Nacional del Emprendedor provided
entrepreneurs with 3.577 million pesos (US$194,000) in funds.[80]
In January 2016, the Michoacán
Ministry of Social Development enacted a 10 million peso (US$542,000)
rehabilitation program to build 605 homes in affected communities.[81]